AI: Are we there yet?

...patience playing infinite games

It’s been barely nine months since OpenAI’s ChatGPT stunned the world by shining a spotlight on what LLM AI can deliver. ChatGPT became the fastest to ramp to a 100 million users in two months. That pace was only beaten recently by Meta’s Threads, which crossed that number in less than a week, by leveraging Instagram subscribers. 

That and other AI developments have taken the world by storm this year. And it’s been unrelenting in its pace and intensity. The stories have been rife with drama and conflicts. And our media, both offline and on have made it all a gladiatorial sport, with or without cage matches.

This is all brought home vividly by this week’s Vox piece “Is the AI boom already over?”:

“When generative AI products started rolling out to the general public last year, it kicked off a frenzy of excitement and fear.”

“Assuming, that is, they’re still using them. Recent reports suggest that consumers are starting to lose interest: The new AI-powered Bing search hasn’t made a dent in Google’s market share, ChatGPT is losing users for the first time, and the bots are still prone to basic errors that make them impossible to trust. In some cases, they may be even less accurate now than they were before. Is the party over for this party trick?”

In my June preview for what’s ahead for AI in the second half of 2023, I said:

“AI, including the current LLM and Generative iterations, will likely prove slower to impress mainstream global users, despite the ‘Wow’ factor of ChatGPT to date. And financial cycles around AI as before, will always ebb and flow ahead of the secular tech cycles.”

We all know that this AI Tech wave, is a long race with ‘reinforcement learning’ feedback loops driving usage and efficacy of the AI models at scale. The progression up the boxes above will take years to play out.

Nvidia alone in boxes 2 and 3 will rule the roost as the key provider of GPUs to make LLM AI do their ‘magic’, until 2025 at least. It’s already tripled Nvidia stock this year to over a trillion dollar in market cap. Lot of intense games afoot globally to secure short and long-term supply of these coveted chips.

Given the games, bring to mind a relevant framework made memorable in “Finite and Infinite Games” by James Carse (1987):

''There are at least two kinds of games'': finite and infinite. Finite games are those instrumental activities - from sports to business to politics to wars - in which the participants obey rules, recognize boundaries and announce winners and losers.”

“The infinite game - there is only one - that changes rules, plays with boundaries and exists solely for the purpose of continuing the game. A finite player seeks power; the infinite one displays self-sufficient strength. Finite games are theatrical, necessitating an audience; infinite ones are dramatic, involving participants. Finite games are . . . oh, well, you get the idea.”

Yes we do. The Greeks used this framework centuries ago, and it’s still valid today to understand the games within games being played. When we try and judge if Google is reeling from the 'ChatGPT’ OpenAI challenge, or perhaps even beating back the AI onslaught.

Or if Meta’s Zuckerberg is up or down this week in Threads vs Elon’s X/Twitter users and engagement. Whether advertisers are flocking to Threads vs X, or Meta Reels vs TikTok. Will Elon Musk outdo OpenAI, Microsoft and Google with xAI? And will Google Deepmind’s AI robots be victorious over Elon’s Optimus robot army? And which AI software platforms, closed or open, will developers embrace around the world? Also, how will the battles over content play out amongst authors, publishers, media, and the AI companies?

When do we get ‘Smart Agents’ from Meta, and will they beat offerings by OpenAI, Inflection and other comers? And will Apple ever even get into the AI gladiator arena? Do we really have to wait until next year for their game-changing Vision Pro platform? And it costs what again? And how much for all those other shiny AI toys from every one else again?

Oh, and what comes after ChatGPT? Is it Google wowing us with AI powered YouTube video for the next generation of LLM AI models? And will they beat TikTok in the race to entertain billions with their AI driven “For You Page (FYP)” technologies?

Is it an AI voice activated Amazon Alexa or Google AI powered voice Assistant that takes us beyond tedious text prompts? And will the US be successful in taking away some AI marbles from China? And what happens over the next three years in these AI races?

I’ve already gone on a limb to make some finite calls in these infinite games. Google beating OpenAI in this ChatGPT round, and separately leveraging their formidable YouTube video assets with AI. Amazon coming from behind in LLM AI for the vast majority of businesses. Meta racing everybody in making money off AI at scale while they ramp up open source and user-facing ‘Smart Agent’ AI apps leveraging their formidable global user base. Apple potentially being the biggest winner with AI at the Edge, on billions of Apple devices. Oh, and Apple getting a head start en Elon and others to the “Everything App”.

But these are infinite games. With never-ending finite games within to entertain us. And hopefully make some money. And not existentially harm us despite our worst fears. Oh, and ultimately do net good things for us all in the long haul.

We all have finite patience and a never-ending desire to see if we’re there yet. Even when we all know perfectly well, that the race will go on near Infinitely. With both our rational and emotional sides. Even while we’re always just getting there. Stay tuned.

(NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here)