AI: A question of utility. RTZ #337

...From 'Nice to Have' to 'Must Have'

Cue the music: “What good is it for”?

After the huge momentum of optimism around the AI Tech Wave. What good is AI really for? Where are the cool ‘must have’ applications and services? Aren’t they mostly just ‘nice to have’ for now? Why are so many ramping up investment spend into the tens and hundreds of billions without proper evidence of ‘must have’ utility?

I’ve touched on these sets of questions and related challenges bubbling up in earlier pieces. This time, it’s Axios asking in “Generative AI is still a solution in search of a problem”:

“The gigantic and costly industry Silicon Valley is building around generative AI is still struggling to explain the technology's utility.”

“Why it matters: AI chatbots and image generators are making headlines and fortunes, but a year and a half into their revolution, it remains tough to say exactly why we should all start using them.”

• “The most common rationale is a kind of circular reasoning: Everyone's going to be using these tools, the argument goes, so you might as well get ahead of the parade.”

“Driving the news: This spring, a chorus of thoughtful critics has begun sharing the nagging feeling that, fascinating and alarming as generative AI may be, it doesn't have much practical use in their work or lives.”

• “In a recent podcast conversation, New York Times columnist Ezra Klein said, "I consistently sort of wander up to the A.I., ask it a question, find myself somewhat impressed or unimpressed at the answer. But it doesn't stick for me. It is not a sticky habit ... it's not really clear how to make A.I. part of your life."

• “Software engineer Molly White, author of "Web3 is Going Just Great," reports that generative AI tools are "handy in the same way that it might occasionally be useful to delegate some tasks to an inexperienced and sometimes sloppy intern," but hardly a solid foundation for tech's next big platform.”

Eloquently framed, and then sprinkled with supporting entertaining comments and questions by thoughtful people. The piece has a lot more, all worth reading.

But here’s the thing. As I’ve said many time in these pages, we’ve barely started with AI thing. And as I said yesterday, we’re at the ‘beginning of the beginning’ of exponential AI scaling at unprecedented levels over the next three years at least. Both in terms of the underlying software and hardware.

So what looks like ‘nice to have’ today, with all the pithy questions above, are likely to be ‘must have’ VERY soon for billions. The exponential scaling will likely more difference than we can imagine today. Human minds are more geared to linear growth. Thirty steps gets us down partly down a football field. Thirty steps exponentially gets us to the moon.

Just like countless technology examples before. We just have to wait a bit more for it all. To see “What good is it for”. It’s not ‘Absolutely Nothing’, as the song goes.

It’s not about having faith. But it is about being knowledgeably optimistic given what’s come before. And be a bit more patient for what’s ahead. Stay tued.

(NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here)