AI: New polls on AI Attitudes

...AI Regulation not a voter priority & Experts don't trust tech CEOs on AI

Amidst all the activity around the world this year on both the AI investment gold rush, and Regulator frenzy to figure out how to make it safe, couple of recent polls are worth noting.

First, a recent survey has interesting data on consumers’ take on AI as a regulatory priority. As a new MorningConsult/Axios poll shows. Axios’ reports:

“Americans rank the importance of regulating AI below government shutdowns, health care, gun reform, immigration and the war between Israel and Hamas, according to a new Axios | Morning Consult poll.”

Why it matters: The public's lack of urgency on this issue suggests that Congress might punt regulatory decisions until after the 2024 election.”

That may well be the trajectory in the US, despite the recent White House AI Executive Order, but perhaps not in the EU and elsewhere.

The poll also had more details on the public perceptions around AI, in these early days of the AI Tech Wave:

“Between the lines: The survey found gender, parenting and partisan gaps.”

• “44% of women said it's not even possible to regulate AI, compared to just 23% of men.”

• “31% of men said they would or do let their kids use AI products like chatbots "for any purpose," but just 4% of women agreed.”

• “53% of women would not let their kids use AI at all, compared to 26% of men.”

• “Parents in urban areas were far more open to their children using AI than parents in the suburbs or rural areas.”

Despite the fears around AI, the priorities around AI showed a different ranking:

“By the numbers: Among 15 priorities tested in the survey, regulating the use of AI ranked 11th, with 27% of respondents calling it a top priority and 33% calling it "important, but a lower priority."

• “Regulating tech companies came in 14th (just above federally legalizing marijuana), with 22% calling it a top priority and 35% saying it's "important, but a lower priority."

• “Preventing a government shutdown, reducing the federal deficit and stimulating the economy ranked first, second and fourth, with reforming health care ranking third.”

There more details to dig into further:

“Zoom in: 78% of those surveyed said political advertisements that use AI should be required to disclose how AI was used to create the ad. That's higher than the 64% who want disclosure when AI is used in professional contexts.”

• “Since our last survey in August, the percentage of people who say "misinformation spread by artificial intelligence" will have an impact on the 2024 presidential election saw an uptick from 53% to 58%.”

• “The number who say AI will reduce trust in elections also grew, from 35% to 41%.”

Finally, on AI itself, the view seems mixed for now:

“Zoom out: Americans are split into four evenly-sized groups when asked if AI will make life "better," "worse," "no impact" and "don't know."

• “Just one in four said AI will make their life better and hardly anyone said they are "very enthusiastic" about AI.”

• “Half of U.S. adults are concerned about AI taking their jobs or the jobs of people they rely on.”

• “69% of U.S. adults are concerned about the development of AI, with concerns about "jobs" and "work" and "misinformation" and "privacy" topping answers to an open-ended question about what worried them.”

• “Use of AI affects attitudes. Just 12% of those who have never used an AI chatbot think AI could improve their lives, compared to 60% who have used AI often.”

It’s important to note that most mainstream folks have yet to try AI products directly, especially the LLM AI based ChatGPT kind. This despite OpenAI telling us at its Developer conference that they have over a 100 million weekly users. It’s just early days for AI services, with consumer tech companies like Meta and Google just rolling out their AI products and services. And Apple taking its slower, bottoms up approach gated by its attention to quality, reliability and privacy. This too comes across in the poll:

“What they're saying: Jordan Marlatt, Morning Consult's lead tech analyst, tells Axios that those who've used generative AI frequently are also the most likely to believe it has benefits — and that it needs regulation.”

The second poll of note is the latest Axios-Generation Lab-Syracuse University AI Experts Survey shows how deep the divide has grown between those who make and sell AI and those who study and advance it. Some highlights here:

“Dishonest, untrustworthy and disingenuous — that's how a majority of experts surveyed from leading universities view AI companies' CEOs and executives, Axios' Margaret Talev and Ryan Heath report.”

“What's happening: 56% of computer science professors at top U.S. research universities surveyed by Axios, Generation Lab and Syracuse University described the corporate leaders as "extremely disingenuous" or "somewhat disingenuous" in their calls for regulation of AI.”

“The big picture: Some critics of Big Tech have argued that leading AI companies like Google, Microsoft and Microsoft-funded OpenAI support regulation as a way to lock out upstart challengers who'd have a harder time meeting government requirements.

• Our survey suggests that this perspective is shared by many computer science professors at top U.S. research universities.”

Growth or mushroom cloud like existential risks are the two current polarities most on the mind of the public, regulators, and the AI industry in the near term. I continue to think it’s earlier than early in terms of AI hitting its stride on either front, but the net promise is worth leaning into for long-term societal good.

With LLM AI services going more mainstream, and more multimodal (infused with voice, speech and the ability to see and hear), one can expect these technologies to change user habits next year to perhaps a little more comfort with AI usefulness and utility. We’ll see how time moves these poll needles down the road. Stay tuned.

(NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here)