AI: Tesla up at bat on 'Robotaxi Day' October 10. RTZ #499
...self driving cars still remain 'the canary in the AI coal mine'
One of the most memorable characters in the iconic 1990 SciFi movie ‘Total Recall’ (the Arnold Schwarzenegger version), is Johnnycab above, the robotic taxi and its memorable ‘driver’. The movie is worth re-watching for that character alone.
The quest for fully and truly self-driving cars has long been a key holy grail for AI in all its forms, for almost two decades now in this AI Tech Wave. And alongside it is the dream for ‘robotaxis’.
Most auto makers have tempered their aspirations on self driving cars, except of course Tesla. Elon Musk who has been saying Tesla is close to fully autonomous driving for almost a decade ago, is up at bat again. Next week, Tesla has its ‘Robotaxi day’ on October 10.
As Axios lays it out in “The Tesla robotaxi show-what to watch”:
“Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been promising self-driving taxis for years. Skeptics and true believers will find out soon whether he can deliver.”
“Why it matters: With new competitors eating into Tesla's electric vehicle market share, Musk is now betting the company on artificial intelligence, including robotaxis.”
“Driving the news: The billionaire CEO will host an event on Oct. 10 in Los Angeles, where he's expected to reveal a Cybercab prototype and share the latest advancements in Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) technology.”
After years of Elon Musk’s FSD ‘show and tell’, the media expectations are a bit muted this time:
“The show at Warner Bros. studios will no doubt be another Musk special, with lots of hype describing it as a product everyone said was impossible.”
“There are a multitude of unanswered questions about whether the technology is ready, and how a Tesla robotaxi business would work.”
“Musk has said Tesla will be ready to launch its robotaxi service next year, but he's famous for saying "I'd be shocked if (such-and-such) didn't happen next year" — only to move the goalposts again and again.”
And then goes into expectations around the robotaxi itself:
“The Cybercab — if cleared by regulators — would be the basis for a future Tesla robotaxi service. And don't be surprised if Musk unveils an Uber-like ride-hailing app as part of the event.”
“But his larger vision is to turn Tesla's existing customer-owned fleet into a sort of Airbnb on wheels, with owners sending their driverless cars to pick up riders when they aren't using them.”
“For that to work, Tesla needs to share many more details, like who is liable in case of an accident or theft, and who will clean and maintain cars between rides.”
“The bottom line: Tesla watchers have questions. We'll see if Musk has answers.”
The piece goes on to detail many of the technical and regulatory details to be worked out for Tesla and the industry. And is worth reading in full.
Turning to the broader picture, regular readers know that I’ve called AI for self driving cars ‘the canary in the AI coal mine’ since last Fall:
“The quest for self-driving cars over the last dozen plus years, where dozens of companies worldwide have invested over $200 billion dollars, may have a lot to teach us in how much the quest for AI promises may truly take in time, money and talent. That self-driving cars may be the canaries in the AI coal mine despite the hundredX plus improvements expected in LLM AI models and GPU hardware for general AI (aka AGI and ‘super intelligence’ by OpenAI et al), just in the next three plus years.”
I explained then that we Tesla and most car companines are at Level 2 on a Level 5 scale on full self driving.
In fact this scale is what inspired the AI indusry, led by OpenAI, to come up its own 5 level roadmap to AGI.
Self driving cars, like the long road map to AGI itself will likely take longer than some think to date. Part of the issue as I’ve explained before are the ‘edge cases’. They are the toughest to nail down even after progress has been made over 80% or more on these roadmaps.
AI, whether its for cars or for general purpose activities are totally open-ended. Thus it’s been tough to achieve in cars. So much so that even Apple folded and/or postponed its ambitions there.
As often said here, things often take longer than expected with promising new technologies. This AI Tech Wave is likely going to be no different. Having said all that, will keep an open mind on Tesla’s Robotaxi day next week. In the meantime, re-watch Total Recall and ‘Johnnycab’. Stay tuned.
(NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here)