AI: Tesla's 'Robotaxi & Robots' Ride. RTZ #510

...promising visions with a long AI road to go

In the last few days, one founder/CEO showing a glimpse into the future ‘stuck the landing’, while the other one ‘crashed and burned’. The former of course was Mark Zuckerberg with a preview of his $10,000++ AR (artificial reality) glasses, available in ‘a few years’. The latter was Elon Musk, whose ‘Robotaxi Day’ turned ‘Robotaxi Rides night’ and Party, at Tesla’s ‘We, Robot’ event October 10, ended up disappointing media and investors. Even as he urged the attendees to ‘Enjoy the Ride’ in the newly revealed Cybercabs that evening.

Ironically, at one of his other companies, SpaceX, Elon literally DID ‘stick the landing’ with a beyond impressive ‘Mechazilla’ landing of his SpaceX Booster rocket, one of the largest flying things invented, automagically landing to be caught between two giant mechanical pincers.

The video is worth watching, probably a few times, especially at the 55 second mark. Truly spectacular example of extraordinary engineering, delivering as promised. Kudos to Elon and his SpaceX team indeed.

But coming back to earth on the AI side of this AI Tech Wave tale, Elon’s rollout of his ‘Cybercab’ robotaxi did not get the same applause. As the BBC noted “Tesla shares slide after Cybercab robotaxi revealed”:

“Tesla boss Elon Musk has unveiled the firm's long-awaited robotaxi, the Cybercab, at the Warner Bros Studios in Burbank, California.”

“The futuristic-looking vehicle, featuring two wing-like doors - and no pedals or steering wheel - deposited Mr Musk in front of an audience eager to hear details about a project he considers key to Tesla's next chapter.”

“At the event, billed "We, Robot," the multi-billionaire reiterated his view that fully self-driving vehicles will be safer than those operated by humans and could even earn owners money by being rented out for rides.”

There was even a model shown of a ‘Robovan’ seating 20, available at some point in the future.

“However, investors have so far not shared his enthusiasm - Tesla's share price fell after markets opened in the US on Friday morning.”

“The value of its stock was down more than eight percent, trading at around $219, at 11:45 Eastern Time (16:45 BST).”

“Meanwhile shares in ride-hailing rivals Uber and Lyft - which have their own autonomous ambitions - were each trading up to 10% higher.”

“Questions are being asked about Mr Musk's prediction that production of the Cybercab would begin some time "before 2027", given his track record of failing to meet his own deadlines.”

"I tend to be optimistic with time frames," he quipped during the event.”

“He said the Cybercab - which would compete with rivals including Alphabet-owned Waymo - would cost less than $30,000.”

“However analysts have cast doubt on how realistic that plan is.”

Part of the reason the event was billed ‘We, Robot’, was of course an homage to Isaac Asimov’s iconic ‘I, Robot’, the book series that has influenced the current generation of robot builders.

As such, Elon along with unveiling 20 Cybercabs for attendees to ride around the Warner lot in, were also regaled by a couple of dozen Optimus ‘humanoid robots’. These robots did everything from dance, serve drinks, to play charades with guests through the evening. As the Verge noted:

“A bunch of Tesla’s humanoid Optimus robots walked out alongside the reveal of Tesla’s new Robovan vehicle at tonight’s Cybercab event. The robot is also seen in a video doing daily human tasks like bringing in a package from the porch and watering your plants.”

“The Optimus will walk amongst you,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk says. “You’ll be able to walk right up to them, and they will serve drinks.”

“Musk explains it can basically “do anything” and mentions examples like walking your dog, babysitting your kids, and mowing your lawn. He said it will cost $20,000 to $30,000 “long term.”

“I think this will be the biggest product ever of any kind,” Musk says.”

“After the presentation, livestream footage showed people interacting with Optimus robots at tables and in crowds. Still, the robots weren’t doing much other than waving in the style of Astro Bot. There was a table of drinks — but the Optimus bot was not seen doing more than holding a cup of ice. However, one bot could hand over small gift bags at another table and play rock, paper, scissors with guests. And there was an enclosed gazebo with a bunch of dancing robots inside.”

But the one item not clarified on both the Cybercab, AND the robots, were that they were both ‘teleoperated’. Humans behind the scenes were operating these devices They were not yet truly AI autonomous. As the Verge noted in another piece “The Optimus robots at Tesla’s Cybercab event were humans in disguise”:

“Tesla made sure its Optimus robots were a big part of its extravagant, in-person Cybercab reveal last week. The robots mingled with the crowd, served drinks to and played games with guests, and danced inside a gazebo. Seemingly most surprisingly, they could even talk. But it was mostly just a show.”

“Attendee Robert Scoble posted that he’d learned humans were “remote assisting” the robots, later clarifying that an engineer had told him the robots used AI to walk, spotted Electrek. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote that the robots “relied on tele-ops (human intervention)” in a note, the outlet reports.”

“There are obvious tells to back those claims up, like the fact that the robots all have different voices or that their responses were immediate, with gesticulation to match.”

Ironically again, the Tesla robots have to date always had humans as key operators:

”Musk first announced Tesla’s humanoid robot by bringing what was very clearly a person in a robot suit on stage, so it’s no surprise that the Optimuses (Optimi? Optimodes?) at last week’s event were hyperbolic in their presentation. And people who went didn’t seem to feel upset or betrayed by that. But if you were hoping to have any sense of how far along Tesla truly is in its humanoid robotics work, the “We, Robot” event wasn’t the place to look.”

Ultimately, the whole show was summarized by Venturebeat’s headline: “Tesla’s big ‘We, Robot’ event criticized for ‘parlor tricks’ and vague timelines for robots, Cybercab, Robovan”. All on a Hollywood studio lot:

“Despite showing off slick prototypes of a new “Cybercab” autonomous car without a steering wheel or gas and brake pedals, and a similarly sparse, art deco retrofuturistic “Robovan” capable of seating 20 passengers, the event was criticized by some prominent observers as being more style than substance. lt was lacking in precise details on timelines, costs and legal issues, and even came across as misleading in some cases.”

“The most glaring example of potentially misleading information was Tesla’s move to have its still-in-development humanoid Optimus robots filling the venue space and interacting with attendees, even serving drinks at a bar. While some present assumed the robots were entirely autonomous, reports confirmed they were teleoperated — meaning controlled by a human in another room.”

““Not wholly AI? Not at all AI,” wrote venture capitalist Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital on Musk’s social network X. “Totally worthy to celebrate low latency remote control but totally dishonest to demo these as autonomous robots—call it the parlor trick it is.””

He posted a video of the tele operated robots.

I’ve summarized my views on the long road ahead for Tesla on video (5 minutes starting at the 1:30 minute mark).

And in posts here on RTZ, as recently as a couple of weeks ago, recalling the ‘Johnnycab’ robotaxi from the classic 1990 scifi movie Total Recall:

“Self driving cars, like the long road map to AGI itself will likely take longer than some think to date. Part of the issue as I’ve explained before are the ‘edge cases’. They are the toughest to nail down even after progress has been made over 80% or more on these roadmaps.”

“AI, whether its for cars or for general purpose activities are totally open-ended. Thus it’s been tough to achieve in cars. So much so that even Apple folded and/or postponed its ambitions there.”

“As often said here, things often take longer than expected with promising new technologies. This AI Tech Wave is likely going to be no different. Having said all that, will keep an open mind on Tesla’s Robotaxi day next week. In the meantime, re-watch Total Recall and ‘Johnnycab’.”

We’ve now seen Tesla’s ‘Cybercab’ robotaxi vision, and tele operated Optimus robots. Time to return to scifi movies and books again for now. As we wait a bit longer for this AI Tech Wave to deliver truly autonomous robotaxis and robots some day. (Google’s Waymo today in some cities). Stay tuned.

(NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here)