AI: Top Fears, Safety and Jobs

…and it really starts and ends with Jobs

The two top mainstream biggest Fears around AI are Job Displacement and Safety (Existential and otherwise). 

The latter of course is deeply embedded in the global cultural psyche through science fiction and movies (Snow Crash, Ready Player One, 2001, Terminator/Skynet, Matrix, Her, etc). 

The former of course is what terrifies politicians the most, especially as reporters with microphones pepper them with headline writing questions on what they’re doing about it. Especially on TV. 

Will have a lot more to say on both fears in detail in future posts. But most data driven analysis of technology cycles indicate that humanity generally not only survives but thrives through technology cycles. Net of the possible and actual Threats and Harms. 

Likely going back to Fire and the Wheel. We don’t have data there. Just scary stories starting (and not ending) with Prometheus stealing Fire from the Gods. 

And the ‘positive over time’ impact of technology is measurable in economic terms. It has helped bring billions out of poverty over the two hundred years, and particularly over the last three decades. And make populations of 8 billion and more possible. As the Tech  impact is compounding and accelerating. 

I’ve spent decades professionally studying this in detail, so feel intrinsically comfortable saying the above. 

This recent 2022 report by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), provides detail job impact assessments by past technologies to the current AI wave. Just in the last few weeks, two new reports are worth perusing. 

The most recent is by McKinsey, titled “The Economic Potential of Generative AI”. As the New York Times reports:

“The report from McKinsey comes as a debate rages over the potential economic effects of A.I.-powered chatbots on labor and the economy.

“Generative artificial intelligence” is set to add up to $4.4 trillion of value to the global economy annually, according to a report from McKinsey Global Institute, in what is one of the rosier predictions about the economic effects of the rapidly evolving technology.”

Generative A.I., which includes chatbots such as ChatGPT that can generate text in response to prompts, can potentially boost productivity by saving 60 to 70 percent of workers’ time through automation of their work, according to the 68-page report, which was published early Wednesday. Half of all work will be automated between 2030 and 2060, the report said.”

The same article also cites the other major Economic Impact of AI report, this one by Goldman Sachs (Disclosure: I led the Internet Equities Research team there in the nineties). Here’s the glass less full part of that report:

“Last week, Goldman Sachs released a report warning that A.I. could lead to worker disruption and that some companies would benefit more from the technology than others.”

From the Goldman report itself though, the glass more full part is this: 

“[AI/ML] could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period.”

Again, most technology waves, especially recent ones like PC, Internet etc., tend to have headline grabbing negative job impacts in the early years, followed by a lot more new job in later years, as the new technologies trigger GDP growth nudging product and services worldwide. 

This is part of the message that Tech Pioneer/Uber-VC Marc Andreessen outlines in his recent AI credo discussed in an earlier post. 

Yes, there’s potential job displacement pain ahead due to AI and related technologies. Locally and Globally. 

And it needs open and candid policy discussions and actions to address and assist all who need help transitioning to new opportunities. And a lot more STEM Education for our young. Locally and Globally. 

But the data from previous Tech cycles shows long term net growth opportunities. 

In a historically rhyming manner, AI broadly applied across every industry (Education, Healthcare, Manufacturing, Services, Finance and many others), is poised to take the average and make them above average. The fancy word is Augmentation. We all need to help each other lean into it. 

We will all likely be Healthier, Wealthier, and Happier for it. Over time.   

AI is just another step in the technology staircase. Let’s climb eyes wide open and less fearful. Stay tuned.