I’ve often said in these pages that two seemingly opposite things can be true at the same time. And they can both attract like flames to moths. We seem to be at a macro moment of that type for this AI Tech Wave.
“We may well be in an AI bubble — the money, momentum and magical thinking all point that way.”
“Why it matters: A financial bubble doesn’t mean AI won’t transform the way we live and work.”
“It means the risks are higher — for investors, for partners tethered to OpenAI, Google and Microsoft, and for the broader economy — if trillion-dollar bets don’t pay off.”
“The big picture: Bubble talk is everywhere. Mentions of “AI bubble” rose 880%since last quarter’s investor calls, according to AlphaSense.”
“What they’re saying: Speakers at recent Axios events were buzzing about the risks of an overheated market and buzzing about the buzz itself.”
“Some parts of AI are probably in a bubble,” Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis told Axios’ Mike Allen at the AI+ Summit on Dec. 4. But, he added, “It’s not a binary.”
“I, more than anyone, believe that AI is the most transformative technology ever, so I think in the fullness of time, this is all going to be more than justified,” Hassabis said.”
“I think it would be a mistake to dismiss [AI] as snake oil,” OpenAI Chairman and Sierra co-founder Bret Taylor said at the AI+ Summit.
“Taylor acknowledged that there “probably is a bubble,” but said businesses, ideas and technologies endure even after bubbles pop. “There’s going to be a handful of companies that are truly generational,” Taylor said.”
“Such was the case with the dot-com boom. While companies like Pets.com and Webvan were washed away during the bust, Taylor noted that Amazon and Google grew from the rubble.”
“Zoom in: Others have argued that AI isn’t a bubble, but large language models could be.”
“LLMs are becoming a commodity and the market is facing diminishing returns, scientist and author Gary Marcus told Axios last week. “The return on investment has not been that high. The costs are very high. Nobody except Nvidia is making all that much money. The big players are losing money.”
“This sentiment was echoed by Hugging Face CEO Clem Delangue. “I think the LLM bubble might be bursting next year,” Delangue told Axios’ Dan Primack onstage at the Axios BFD Summit last month.”
In the meantime, companies and investors are making the most of the moment:
“Zoom out: Many of the suppliers to the AI economy are trying to take advantage of a boom, while also trying to avoid being left holding the bag if the good times end.”
“Wendell Huang, CFO of leading chip foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), told Axios in an interview that the company is talking not just to its customers, but also to its customers’ customers to determine demand.”
“We believe the AI megatrend is real. But our internal approach remains a disciplined one,” Huang said.”
“Moody’s warned on Friday that OpenAI’s plan to spend $1.4 trillion on infrastructure in the coming years presents a significant gamble, not just for the ChatGPT creator, but also its partners and suppliers.”
“Nearly two-thirds of Oracle’s future business commitments are from its $300 billion contract with OpenAI, Moody’s said. The credit rating firm estimated that about half of Microsoft’s order backlog is tied to OpenAI based on the two companies’ recently renegotiated deal.”
“Chipmaker AMD could be counting on 25% to 30% of its 2027 revenue from OpenAI, per Moody’s.”
“Between the lines: Bubble or no, the mix of heavy investment and stiff competition has made vast computing power available to developers and businesses at comparatively low cost.”
“Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, Anthropic and others are all constantly looking to one-up each other on performance while undercutting others on price, Levie said.”
“The great thing from just a user of these technologies, whether as an end user or a developer, is you have hundreds of billions of dollars of capital expense, capital expenditure and R&D going into technology that you get to use instantaneously,” Box CEO Aaron Levie told Axios at the summit.”
“The bottom line: An AI bubble doesn’t mean the technology is hype, or that today’s frenzy isn’t also minting the next generation of tech giants, but it does mean the financial stakes are rising fast.”
My view continues to be ‘no’ from the perspective of the secular accelerating improvements in AI tech and innovation.
And ‘maybe’ from a financial market perspective. As a tech analyst for over thirty years, it’s important to separate the secular and financial aspects of Tech Waves. And this AI Tech Wave one is no different. Stay tuned.
(NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here)
Great framing on the secular vs financial distinction. The TSMC angle is key here becuase their 'disciplined approach' basically confirms they see real demand signal beneath the hype. When foundries start hedging on capacity builds, that's when you know bubble territory, but they're still going fullthrottle on 3nm/2nm, which tells you the infrastructure bet is solid even if LLM commod ification happens faster than expected.
https://open.substack.com/pub/evolvingtheory/p/the-ai-bubble-isnt-the-dot-com-bubble-b0d?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=275w0u
Great framing on the secular vs financial distinction. The TSMC angle is key here becuase their 'disciplined approach' basically confirms they see real demand signal beneath the hype. When foundries start hedging on capacity builds, that's when you know bubble territory, but they're still going fullthrottle on 3nm/2nm, which tells you the infrastructure bet is solid even if LLM commod ification happens faster than expected.